Organized crime in Ecuador and the 10 lessons it leaves for neighboring Latin American states

Organized crime has already won this battle. The criminal operations against a television channel were only part of a planned message. The criminals knew they would be arrested, but they were not kamikazes. They would hand over the hostages and return to the jail, their command and control center. In 2015, and for the second year in a row, Ecuador was recognized as “the best place to live for foreigners”, according to InterNations' Expat Insider Survey, Connecting Global Minds. Factors such as high quality of life, security, work opportunities and facilities for internal mobility were considered, highlighting the friendliness of its people. In 2017, it maintained the lowest homicide rate in Latin America, along with Chile.

The criminal events that have recently been recorded in Ecuador, in which the capacity of territorial domination and challenge to the State by criminal groups has been demonstrated, are unfortunately not isolated or novel events in our region.

Just a year ago, in Culiacán, Mexico, we saw a criminal response of extraordinary military capacity. After the temporary detention of Ovidio Guzmán, son of “El Chapo” and leader of a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, hundreds of organized crime soldiers blocked all access to the city with armored cars and trucks, adapted to carry war weapons. with the ability to destroy planes and helicopters in the air. The result was around thirty people murdered, multiple kidnappings of soldiers and police, destruction of barracks, etc., which caused the capital of the State of Sinaloa to be taken hostage by organized crime.

A negotiation not officially recognized and with hints of submission on the part of the federal government shamefully freed “Chapito” and the criminal paramilitary forces little by little handed over the city, but not before celebrating for a long time in its streets, shooting, drinking, shouting. and threatening.

These actions demonstrate the inability of the State to confront criminality that controls territories and puts the safety of people and the stability of institutions at risk.

The president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, has declared the existence of an internal armed conflict in Ecuador and has ordered the Armed Forces to carry out military operations to neutralize criminal groups. In the coming days we will see what the correlation of forces will be between the State and crime. However, what is clear is that the civilian population will be caught in the middle of this conflict, vulnerable and intimidated.

Organized crime has already won this battle. The criminal operations against a television channel were only part of a planned message. The criminals knew they would be arrested, but they were not kamikazes. They would hand over the hostages and return to the jail, their command and control center. The only thing that mattered was sending a message to the country and other criminals.

The same happens with the murdered prison police officers, whose images were spread on social networks. They are part of the crime communication strategy. It is likely, unfortunately, that these hostages will not be released and we will soon see more horrible, bloody and merciless messages, this time directed at police and soldiers. As Machiavelli wrote, “he who controls people's fear becomes the master of their souls.”

The wave of violence shaking Ecuador was precipitated by the government's attempt to transfer leaders of the country's main criminal organizations to a maximum security prison with a special regime. At least two of them, belonging to the Los Choneros and Los Lobos gangs, escaped with the apparent support of members of the prison forces. In that logic, it is likely that this maximum security prison will also be controlled by criminal structures in a short time. As Pablo Escobar said: “For silver or for lead.”

In a previous column, I wrote that a few years ago I had the opportunity to interview an experienced Ecuadorian police officer about the emerging criminal waves in the Port of Guayaquil, a topic that we began to investigate with great interest. His response was: “The best way to know how to deal with crime is to clearly understand what kind of crime we are dealing with.” In Ecuador, these initial events escalated to become the worst wave of irrational violence that has shaken the country and is still ongoing. The homicide rate in the country will close the year 2023 as the highest in its history.

However, I believe that at the time of the beginning of its peak of violence, Ecuador had more clarity than our country regarding the organizations it faced. These local gangs are advancing to become more powerful and transnational structures. With these actions, his brand begins to be traded on the organized crime market. Therefore, attention is required to the various Ecuadorian drug criminal groups such as Las Águilas, ÁguilasKiller, Ak47, Caballeros Oscuros, ChoneKiller, Choneros, Covicheros, Cuartel de las Feas, Cubanos, Fatales, Gánster, Kater Piler, Lagartos, Latin Kings, Lobos , Los p.27, Los Tiburones, Mafia 18, Mafia Trébol, Patrones, R7, Tiguerones, all of which were yesterday classified as terrorist organizations.

By the way, the situation in Ecuador can provide at least 10 lessons to which the rest of the neighboring Latin American states should pay attention.

Lesson 1: Let us not forget our prisons. Let's invest now, not only in infrastructure, but also in the human resources of the Gendarmerie. Let's work on your internal control mechanisms and professionalize your officials.

Lesson 2: Let's understand what we are facing. Organized crime is a complex threat that requires a comprehensive response.

Lesson 3: Let's not further politicize an issue that belongs to the State. Let's join the effort. It is not about winning or losing elections, nor about blaming others. Let us demand competent authorities.

Lesson 4: Be careful with extreme measures, if we do not understand their effects or are not willing to accept their consequences.

Lesson 5: Every successful model is replicated. Beware of imitative effects.

Lesson 6: Our authorities must truly believe what they say. It is necessary that your actions reflect your words.

Lesson 7. Beware of corruption and the surrender of territory due to the lack of presence of the State.

Lesson 8. Be careful with our ports. They are a gateway for organized crime.

Lesson 9. Full support, training and protection of our police officers is required. They are the ones who face this reality daily (the police on our streets, not circumstantial political or institutional figures). The most drastic sanctions must be imposed for corruption or abuse.

Lesson 10. Do not turn crime into symbols, do not grow your brand: contrary to what we believe, your rise in status is an incentive for the entry of new members.

Fountain:

By: Pablo Zeballos. Expert in organized crime, international consultant on security matters.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spjVPbyCD40

They calculate the damage that an armed conflict in Taiwan could cause to the world economy

Armed confrontation or blockade of Taiwan could hit semiconductor supplies and trigger shipping disruptions in the region, trade sanctions and disruptions in financial markets.

If a conflict broke out in Taiwan in the form of a direct armed confrontation with mainland China, the world community would suffer a loss of $10 trillion, equivalent to approximately 10% of global GDP, Bloomberg predicts.

The escalation between the authorities of both parties can erupt in two scenarios, Bloomberg experts believe. The first would be a military conflict, in which non-regional actors, such as the US, participate, and the second, a blockade that isolates Taiwan. In both cases, the conflict would hit the supply of semiconductors and trigger disruptions to maritime transport in the region, trade sanctions and disruptions in financial markets.

The significant economic losses that different countries would suffer are attributed to the importance of semiconductors in modern industry and Taiwan's high share in their production. Consequently, both in the event of an armed confrontation or a blockade, the island will no longer be able to supply semiconductors to the market, which will cause a shortage.

Losses by country

According to global risks modeled by industry experts, a conflict in Taiwan could lead to more losses for the global economy than other conflicts in the world. In the event of hostilities, Taiwan would suffer the greatest damage, as its economy would be "destroyed" with a 40% decline in GDP. China, for its part, would face sanctions, experience a shortage of semiconductors, which in turn would have a negative impact on the industry, causing a 16.7% deterioration in its GDP.

Other countries that would suffer serious decreases in their GDP could be South Korea, where the economic indicator would fall by 23.3%, and the countries of Southeast Asia, where a drop of 20% would be recorded. The US economy would also be affected by the consequences of the possible conflict, especially due to the interruption of global supply chains, mainly for semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan, which according to forecasts would see its GDP fall by 6.7%.

Losses in the event of a blockade would be smaller and are explained by lower disruptions in the financial market and smaller-scale sanctions. Thus, in one year, Taiwan's GDP would decrease by 12.2%, while the same indicator for China would fall by 8.9%, for the US by 3.3% and for the world by 5%.

The outlet reports that many companies and countries are preparing in advance for a possible escalation, in an effort to minimize possible losses and reduce their own risks. Thus, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jude Blanchette, noted that interest in a crisis in Taiwan among the multinational companies he advises has "skyrocketed" and currently covers 95% of discussions.

Damage that an armed conflict in Taiwan could cause to the world economy Image source: Bloomberg.com

Everything we know so far about the attempted 'color revolution' in Serbia

Following the defeat of the Serbian opposition in extraordinary parliamentary elections, its supporters caused riots in Belgrade. This event was described by the authorities as "a Maidan attempt", the coup d'état perpetrated in Ukraine in 2014.

Last week, Serbia was rocked by mass protests sparked by the opposition's refusal to accept its defeat in recent parliamentary elections. On December 24, supporters of an alliance of opposition parties even attempted to storm the municipal administration of the capital, Belgrade. In the midst of these events, the country's authorities suspect that the protests have the support of the West, which is trying to influence the political situation in Serbia and carry out a 'color revolution'.

Extraordinary parliamentary elections:

In early November, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced the dissolution of the national Parliament and called extraordinary parliamentary elections after receiving a request from the Government, which argued that "under current conditions [the measure] would guarantee a greater degree of democracy." , would reduce tensions that arise between opposing forces in society", and would also "reaffirm the right to freely express opinions and points of view" on political and economic issues, including the promotion of "European values".

The idea of dissolving Parliament has been promoted for months by opposition parties, which have formed a coalition called Serbia Against Violence. Protests have been held under this motto in the country for more than half a year, encouraged by two cases of mass shootings that occurred in spring. Protesters have demanded that the Government be held accountable.

Thus, on December 17, parliamentary and local elections were held in 65 cities and municipalities, including Belgrade. As a result, Vucic's coalition, Serbia Must Not Stop, won the parliamentary elections, winning 47% of the vote, followed by the Serbia Against Violence alliance with 23%.

Mass protests:

After the results were announced, protests have broken out across the country as the opposition bloc has refused to accept its defeat and accused the authorities of falsifying the voting results. Supporters of Serbia Against Violence demonstrated in the country's capital throughout last week, demanding the annulment of the election results. They blocked streets in front of the Republican Electoral Commission (CER) building and even tried to assault it.

The biggest escalation of tensions occurred on December 24, when a large crowd of opposition supporters gathered in front of the Belgrade Municipal Assembly and the entrance to the CER building in a mass demonstration. The opposition leaders asked the gathered citizens to surround the administration in a circle, and the leaders of Serbia Against Violence to enter the building and "speak from the balcony as victors." The protesters began to break window panes, lit flares and tried to break down the doors of the building, while police officers blocked the entrance from the inside.

According to data from the Serbian Ministry of the Interior, eight police officers were injured and 38 people were arrested during the protests.

Serbian government had been warned of the opposition's plans. Later, in a message to the nation, Vucic stated that "this is not a revolution" and asked the country's citizens "not to worry." In addition, the president pointed out that his government had been warned of the opposition's plans.

"Thanks to the foreign services, which made it clear that they knew what was being prepared, and reported and provided all the information, and to our intelligence services, which reacted in time," he said.

For her part, the country's Prime Minister, Ana Brnabic, reported that Moscow warned the Serbian authorities of possible unrest. "We had information from the services that warned about this. First of all, the Russian security service also provided us with that information," he said, calling the riots "a Maidan attempt," comparing the political climate in his country to the coup. of State perpetrated in Ukraine in 2014".

"Irrefutable information" that the West supports the protests in Serbia

In this context, the president also indicated that the situation in the country is "a consequence of much more serious geopolitical circumstances with which an attempt is made to destroy the sovereignty and independence of Serbia." "From time to time it seems to me that not only our political adversaries, but also their mentors from abroad, think that everyone in this country is an idiot. That no one has eyes, ears and that no one understands what happened last night. Everyone saw that, for almost three hours, police officers and the property of Serbian citizens were brutally attacked by those determined to destroy democracy in Serbia and the electoral will of our people," he said.

According to the Russian ambassador in Belgrade, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, who met with Vucic this Monday, he has "irrefutable information" that the West supports the protests that shook the country. "Realizing that in Belgrade the plans are not feasible in a calm and peaceful way, the opposition immediately started protests, which are encouraged and supported from outside. [...] It is true, and Vucic has spoken about it. [ ...] He has irrefutable data that there is incitement and support from the West," he said, stressing that the Serbian president "will not allow tensions to escalate" in the country.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also accused Western countries of trying to influence the political situation in Serbia, using techniques that were used during the Maidan.

For his part, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov also stated that attempts by other forces to provoke unrest in the country are being observed. "The processes and attempts of third forces, including from abroad, to provoke such unrest in Belgrade are evident," he declared, highlighting that Moscow is convinced that the Serbian authorities will be able to guarantee security and legitimacy in the country.

(Source: RT.)

Image Source: https://www.iri.org