They calculate the damage that an armed conflict in Taiwan could cause to the world economy

Armed confrontation or blockade of Taiwan could hit semiconductor supplies and trigger shipping disruptions in the region, trade sanctions and disruptions in financial markets.

If a conflict broke out in Taiwan in the form of a direct armed confrontation with mainland China, the world community would suffer a loss of $10 trillion, equivalent to approximately 10% of global GDP, Bloomberg predicts.

The escalation between the authorities of both parties can erupt in two scenarios, Bloomberg experts believe. The first would be a military conflict, in which non-regional actors, such as the US, participate, and the second, a blockade that isolates Taiwan. In both cases, the conflict would hit the supply of semiconductors and trigger disruptions to maritime transport in the region, trade sanctions and disruptions in financial markets.

The significant economic losses that different countries would suffer are attributed to the importance of semiconductors in modern industry and Taiwan's high share in their production. Consequently, both in the event of an armed confrontation or a blockade, the island will no longer be able to supply semiconductors to the market, which will cause a shortage.

Losses by country

According to global risks modeled by industry experts, a conflict in Taiwan could lead to more losses for the global economy than other conflicts in the world. In the event of hostilities, Taiwan would suffer the greatest damage, as its economy would be "destroyed" with a 40% decline in GDP. China, for its part, would face sanctions, experience a shortage of semiconductors, which in turn would have a negative impact on the industry, causing a 16.7% deterioration in its GDP.

Other countries that would suffer serious decreases in their GDP could be South Korea, where the economic indicator would fall by 23.3%, and the countries of Southeast Asia, where a drop of 20% would be recorded. The US economy would also be affected by the consequences of the possible conflict, especially due to the interruption of global supply chains, mainly for semiconductors manufactured in Taiwan, which according to forecasts would see its GDP fall by 6.7%.

Losses in the event of a blockade would be smaller and are explained by lower disruptions in the financial market and smaller-scale sanctions. Thus, in one year, Taiwan's GDP would decrease by 12.2%, while the same indicator for China would fall by 8.9%, for the US by 3.3% and for the world by 5%.

The outlet reports that many companies and countries are preparing in advance for a possible escalation, in an effort to minimize possible losses and reduce their own risks. Thus, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jude Blanchette, noted that interest in a crisis in Taiwan among the multinational companies he advises has "skyrocketed" and currently covers 95% of discussions.

Damage that an armed conflict in Taiwan could cause to the world economy Image source: Bloomberg.com

Everything we know so far about the attempted 'color revolution' in Serbia

Following the defeat of the Serbian opposition in extraordinary parliamentary elections, its supporters caused riots in Belgrade. This event was described by the authorities as "a Maidan attempt", the coup d'état perpetrated in Ukraine in 2014.

Last week, Serbia was rocked by mass protests sparked by the opposition's refusal to accept its defeat in recent parliamentary elections. On December 24, supporters of an alliance of opposition parties even attempted to storm the municipal administration of the capital, Belgrade. In the midst of these events, the country's authorities suspect that the protests have the support of the West, which is trying to influence the political situation in Serbia and carry out a 'color revolution'.

Extraordinary parliamentary elections:

In early November, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced the dissolution of the national Parliament and called extraordinary parliamentary elections after receiving a request from the Government, which argued that "under current conditions [the measure] would guarantee a greater degree of democracy." , would reduce tensions that arise between opposing forces in society", and would also "reaffirm the right to freely express opinions and points of view" on political and economic issues, including the promotion of "European values".

The idea of dissolving Parliament has been promoted for months by opposition parties, which have formed a coalition called Serbia Against Violence. Protests have been held under this motto in the country for more than half a year, encouraged by two cases of mass shootings that occurred in spring. Protesters have demanded that the Government be held accountable.

Thus, on December 17, parliamentary and local elections were held in 65 cities and municipalities, including Belgrade. As a result, Vucic's coalition, Serbia Must Not Stop, won the parliamentary elections, winning 47% of the vote, followed by the Serbia Against Violence alliance with 23%.

Mass protests:

After the results were announced, protests have broken out across the country as the opposition bloc has refused to accept its defeat and accused the authorities of falsifying the voting results. Supporters of Serbia Against Violence demonstrated in the country's capital throughout last week, demanding the annulment of the election results. They blocked streets in front of the Republican Electoral Commission (CER) building and even tried to assault it.

The biggest escalation of tensions occurred on December 24, when a large crowd of opposition supporters gathered in front of the Belgrade Municipal Assembly and the entrance to the CER building in a mass demonstration. The opposition leaders asked the gathered citizens to surround the administration in a circle, and the leaders of Serbia Against Violence to enter the building and "speak from the balcony as victors." The protesters began to break window panes, lit flares and tried to break down the doors of the building, while police officers blocked the entrance from the inside.

According to data from the Serbian Ministry of the Interior, eight police officers were injured and 38 people were arrested during the protests.

Serbian government had been warned of the opposition's plans. Later, in a message to the nation, Vucic stated that "this is not a revolution" and asked the country's citizens "not to worry." In addition, the president pointed out that his government had been warned of the opposition's plans.

"Thanks to the foreign services, which made it clear that they knew what was being prepared, and reported and provided all the information, and to our intelligence services, which reacted in time," he said.

For her part, the country's Prime Minister, Ana Brnabic, reported that Moscow warned the Serbian authorities of possible unrest. "We had information from the services that warned about this. First of all, the Russian security service also provided us with that information," he said, calling the riots "a Maidan attempt," comparing the political climate in his country to the coup. of State perpetrated in Ukraine in 2014".

"Irrefutable information" that the West supports the protests in Serbia

In this context, the president also indicated that the situation in the country is "a consequence of much more serious geopolitical circumstances with which an attempt is made to destroy the sovereignty and independence of Serbia." "From time to time it seems to me that not only our political adversaries, but also their mentors from abroad, think that everyone in this country is an idiot. That no one has eyes, ears and that no one understands what happened last night. Everyone saw that, for almost three hours, police officers and the property of Serbian citizens were brutally attacked by those determined to destroy democracy in Serbia and the electoral will of our people," he said.

According to the Russian ambassador in Belgrade, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, who met with Vucic this Monday, he has "irrefutable information" that the West supports the protests that shook the country. "Realizing that in Belgrade the plans are not feasible in a calm and peaceful way, the opposition immediately started protests, which are encouraged and supported from outside. [...] It is true, and Vucic has spoken about it. [ ...] He has irrefutable data that there is incitement and support from the West," he said, stressing that the Serbian president "will not allow tensions to escalate" in the country.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova also accused Western countries of trying to influence the political situation in Serbia, using techniques that were used during the Maidan.

For his part, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov also stated that attempts by other forces to provoke unrest in the country are being observed. "The processes and attempts of third forces, including from abroad, to provoke such unrest in Belgrade are evident," he declared, highlighting that Moscow is convinced that the Serbian authorities will be able to guarantee security and legitimacy in the country.

(Source: RT.)

Image Source: https://www.iri.org

Six Latin American countries will elect president in 2024, a record year with more than 80 elections in the world

More than half of the world's population will elect new leaders next year. Many elections are preceded by controversies and risks for democracy.

(Washington, United States) With more than 80 elections around the world, many of them presidential, 2024 will go down in history as the year in which more people will go to the polls, which will challenge digital platforms and social networks, where a good part of the public discussion happens.

In 2024, elections are scheduled to elect leaders in countries of the size and importance of India, the United States, and Russia. There are others marked by uncertainty and geopolitical tension, such as that of Taiwan, or even the uncertainty of war such as that of Ukraine.

In the Latin American region there are six elections planned, some of them with prior controversy, such as those in Venezuela due to the disqualifications of the opposition candidate that the Nicolás Maduro regime has not finished lifting or due to the unconstitutionality of the re-election of the president as in El Salvador.

Citizens of all European Union countries will also have to vote to elect a new parliament for the bloc.

It is estimated, according to calculations made by The Economist, that at least 2 billion people will go to the polls, something never before seen in a single year. Half of the population, about 4 billion, live in countries where there will be elections in 2024.

The electoral calendar of Latin America.

2024 is born with signs of challenging the new post-pandemic trend of the oppositions winning in Latin America. Since 2019, the government in power has lost 17 of the 18 elections on the continent. And the exception is a lie because in Paraguay the normal thing is for the Colorado Party to win and the real election takes place in the internal elections, which were won by Santiago Peña, from the opposition bloc to then-president Luis Abdo.

However, for next year, in three of the six scheduled elections the favorite is either the president who is up for re-election or the official candidate. Such is the case of El Salvador, the first country on the continent to hold elections in 2024. They will be in February and are involved in a strong controversy because President Nayib Bukele asked for a license to run for re-election, thus flouting the express prohibition he makes. the Constitution of that country for a president to repeat his mandate.

Article 154 of the current Constitution approved in 1983 says: “The presidential term will be five years and will begin and end on June 1, without the person who has exercised the Presidency being able to continue in office for another day.”

Bukele's party modified the composition of the Constitutional Court when it achieved a supermajority in Congress in 2022 and the new magistrates reinterpreted the Magna Carta to allow re-election.

The elections will be on February 4 and will be observed by the OAS. Bukele has very high approval, making him the favorite candidate to win the elections. In case a second round is necessary, something unlikely according to the polls, they will be on March 3.

The continent's calendar continues on May 5, with the elections in Panama, where in addition to the president, Parliament will be completely renewed, local authorities will be nominated and a Constituent Assembly will be elected to reform the Magna Carta of that country.

The favorite to win the Presidency according to the polls in this case is an opponent: former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014), under whom allegations of corruption weigh and was even sanctioned by the United States, where he is prohibited from entering. The current vice president, José Gabriel Carrizo, competes for the ruling party.

Panama was shaken in 2023 by enormous popular protests that paralyzed the country for weeks. The claims against the government arose from the execution of a contract between the State and a mining company. A week later, the first round elections will be held in the Dominican Republic. The favorite, as in El Salvador, is the current president Luis Abinader who is up for re-election. But unlike Bukele, the margin is narrower and the greater probability indicated by the polls is that he must go to the runoff in order to remain in office. That second round, if none of the candidates exceeds 50% plus one of the votes, will be on June 30. The president's contenders will be two-time Dominican president Leonel Fernández (2004 to 2012) and the mayor of Santiago and former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Abel Martínez.

The Latin American electoral calendar will continue in June, when Mexico elects a woman as president for the first time in its history. In December, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will complete his six-year presidential term and intends to hand over control to one of the political figures closest to him: Claudia Sheinbaum. AMLO, who has great acceptance for his mandate according to polls, will seek to transfer some of his popularity to the candidate of Morena, the left-wing political party that he founded. The opposition, made up of Mexico's traditional parties, knows that alone it will not be able to challenge the ruling party's government and that is why it formed a coalition that it called the Broad Front for Mexico. The candidate of that block will be Xóchitl Gálvez.

Both the ruling party and the opposition chose their candidates through public opinion polls. In Uruguay, for its part, the electoral calendar begins in June, when the parties go to internal elections. The ruling party is made up of five parties and at least two of them will have competitive elections. In the National Party, the largest of them, the favorite is Álvaro Delgado, current secretary of the Presidency and right-hand man of Luis Lacalle Pou. Her main competitor internally is the economist Laura Raffo. In the Uruguayan opposition, the Frente Amplio, there will be at least four candidates. The favorite is the mayor of Canelones, Yamandú Orsi and his main competitor will be Carolina Cosse, mayor of Montevideo, the Uruguayan capital. The general elections, which will define the Presidency and Parliament, will be in October. According to a survey by the consulting firm Equipos published this week, in which Uruguayans were asked openly (without guiding options) “which party they would vote for if the elections were held today,” 45% responded that they would vote for the Frente Broad and 38% named one of the parties in the government coalition. If none of the candidates has more than 50% of the votes in name, a second round will be held.

In Venezuela there is still no date for the elections, which are estimated to be in December. The Chavista regime still maintains the disqualification of the opposition candidate María Corina Machado, who won the internal elections held this year by the opposition. The government promised to lift the bans, but has not yet done so.

In other Latin American countries there will also be regional or municipal elections, such as in Chile and Brazil.

The big elections in the rest of the world In the United States, the electoral calendar for the 2024 presidential elections will be intense throughout the year. The president will be chosen by the Electoral College that arises from the elections on Tuesday, November 5 between the current president Joe Biden and whoever is elected by the Republicans in the elections that will close on June 8 but who already has a favorite: former president Donald Trump.

The world's most populous country will also have elections in April. In India, current President Narendra Modi will also seek re-election, in this case for a third term. Two countries that are at war have elections planned. In Russia there will not be credible elections and Vladimir Putin will continue in power. In Ukraine there should be elections, but it is something that has not yet been defined since the law allows the government to suspend them due to being at war. Volodymyr Zelensky's term would end in March and the issue is still under discussion. Among the heavy elections, that of Taiwan must also be considered. Despite being a small island, diplomatic tension between China and the United States over that territory remains in the air. The North American government asks the Chinese not to intervene. Another relevant call to the polls does not have to do with a country but with an association: the European Union. A vote will be held between June 6 and 9 to elect a new European Parliament.

There will also be general elections in Indonesia and South Africa.

By: Gonzalo Ferreira (Source: Infobae).