More than half of the world's population will elect new leaders next year. Many elections are preceded by controversies and risks for democracy.
(Washington, United States) With more than 80 elections around the world, many of them presidential, 2024 will go down in history as the year in which more people will go to the polls, which will challenge digital platforms and social networks, where a good part of the public discussion happens.
In 2024, elections are scheduled to elect leaders in countries of the size and importance of India, the United States, and Russia. There are others marked by uncertainty and geopolitical tension, such as that of Taiwan, or even the uncertainty of war such as that of Ukraine.
In the Latin American region there are six elections planned, some of them with prior controversy, such as those in Venezuela due to the disqualifications of the opposition candidate that the Nicolás Maduro regime has not finished lifting or due to the unconstitutionality of the re-election of the president as in El Salvador.
Citizens of all European Union countries will also have to vote to elect a new parliament for the bloc.
It is estimated, according to calculations made by The Economist, that at least 2 billion people will go to the polls, something never before seen in a single year. Half of the population, about 4 billion, live in countries where there will be elections in 2024.
The electoral calendar of Latin America.
2024 is born with signs of challenging the new post-pandemic trend of the oppositions winning in Latin America. Since 2019, the government in power has lost 17 of the 18 elections on the continent. And the exception is a lie because in Paraguay the normal thing is for the Colorado Party to win and the real election takes place in the internal elections, which were won by Santiago Peña, from the opposition bloc to then-president Luis Abdo.
However, for next year, in three of the six scheduled elections the favorite is either the president who is up for re-election or the official candidate. Such is the case of El Salvador, the first country on the continent to hold elections in 2024. They will be in February and are involved in a strong controversy because President Nayib Bukele asked for a license to run for re-election, thus flouting the express prohibition he makes. the Constitution of that country for a president to repeat his mandate.
Article 154 of the current Constitution approved in 1983 says: “The presidential term will be five years and will begin and end on June 1, without the person who has exercised the Presidency being able to continue in office for another day.”
Bukele's party modified the composition of the Constitutional Court when it achieved a supermajority in Congress in 2022 and the new magistrates reinterpreted the Magna Carta to allow re-election.
The elections will be on February 4 and will be observed by the OAS. Bukele has very high approval, making him the favorite candidate to win the elections. In case a second round is necessary, something unlikely according to the polls, they will be on March 3.
The continent's calendar continues on May 5, with the elections in Panama, where in addition to the president, Parliament will be completely renewed, local authorities will be nominated and a Constituent Assembly will be elected to reform the Magna Carta of that country.
The favorite to win the Presidency according to the polls in this case is an opponent: former president Ricardo Martinelli (2009-2014), under whom allegations of corruption weigh and was even sanctioned by the United States, where he is prohibited from entering. The current vice president, José Gabriel Carrizo, competes for the ruling party.
Panama was shaken in 2023 by enormous popular protests that paralyzed the country for weeks. The claims against the government arose from the execution of a contract between the State and a mining company. A week later, the first round elections will be held in the Dominican Republic. The favorite, as in El Salvador, is the current president Luis Abinader who is up for re-election. But unlike Bukele, the margin is narrower and the greater probability indicated by the polls is that he must go to the runoff in order to remain in office. That second round, if none of the candidates exceeds 50% plus one of the votes, will be on June 30. The president's contenders will be two-time Dominican president Leonel Fernández (2004 to 2012) and the mayor of Santiago and former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Abel Martínez.
The Latin American electoral calendar will continue in June, when Mexico elects a woman as president for the first time in its history. In December, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will complete his six-year presidential term and intends to hand over control to one of the political figures closest to him: Claudia Sheinbaum. AMLO, who has great acceptance for his mandate according to polls, will seek to transfer some of his popularity to the candidate of Morena, the left-wing political party that he founded. The opposition, made up of Mexico's traditional parties, knows that alone it will not be able to challenge the ruling party's government and that is why it formed a coalition that it called the Broad Front for Mexico. The candidate of that block will be Xóchitl Gálvez.
Both the ruling party and the opposition chose their candidates through public opinion polls. In Uruguay, for its part, the electoral calendar begins in June, when the parties go to internal elections. The ruling party is made up of five parties and at least two of them will have competitive elections. In the National Party, the largest of them, the favorite is Álvaro Delgado, current secretary of the Presidency and right-hand man of Luis Lacalle Pou. Her main competitor internally is the economist Laura Raffo. In the Uruguayan opposition, the Frente Amplio, there will be at least four candidates. The favorite is the mayor of Canelones, Yamandú Orsi and his main competitor will be Carolina Cosse, mayor of Montevideo, the Uruguayan capital. The general elections, which will define the Presidency and Parliament, will be in October. According to a survey by the consulting firm Equipos published this week, in which Uruguayans were asked openly (without guiding options) “which party they would vote for if the elections were held today,” 45% responded that they would vote for the Frente Broad and 38% named one of the parties in the government coalition. If none of the candidates has more than 50% of the votes in name, a second round will be held.
In Venezuela there is still no date for the elections, which are estimated to be in December. The Chavista regime still maintains the disqualification of the opposition candidate María Corina Machado, who won the internal elections held this year by the opposition. The government promised to lift the bans, but has not yet done so.
In other Latin American countries there will also be regional or municipal elections, such as in Chile and Brazil.
The big elections in the rest of the world In the United States, the electoral calendar for the 2024 presidential elections will be intense throughout the year. The president will be chosen by the Electoral College that arises from the elections on Tuesday, November 5 between the current president Joe Biden and whoever is elected by the Republicans in the elections that will close on June 8 but who already has a favorite: former president Donald Trump.
The world's most populous country will also have elections in April. In India, current President Narendra Modi will also seek re-election, in this case for a third term. Two countries that are at war have elections planned. In Russia there will not be credible elections and Vladimir Putin will continue in power. In Ukraine there should be elections, but it is something that has not yet been defined since the law allows the government to suspend them due to being at war. Volodymyr Zelensky's term would end in March and the issue is still under discussion. Among the heavy elections, that of Taiwan must also be considered. Despite being a small island, diplomatic tension between China and the United States over that territory remains in the air. The North American government asks the Chinese not to intervene. Another relevant call to the polls does not have to do with a country but with an association: the European Union. A vote will be held between June 6 and 9 to elect a new European Parliament.
There will also be general elections in Indonesia and South Africa.
By: Gonzalo Ferreira (Source: Infobae).
